M I C H I G A N - S C H O O L - B A N D - & - O R C H E S T R A - A S S O C I A T I O N
 


Barton Polot
is Assistant Professor of Music Education and Music Technology at the University of Michigan
 

Moore's Law and the 16x Music Technology Conference

BARTON POLOT

You may have heard of Moore's Law. 

Gordon E. Moore, co-founder of chip-meister Intel Corp., postulated that the capacity and capability of computers would approximately double every eighteen months. Improbable and audacious, this 1965 prediction was and continues to be accurate, uncannily so, casting Moore into legend and his prediction into "law." Indeed, to guage the past and to predict the future of personal computing, one need only cipher the arithmetic of Moore's Law. 

MSBOA held its first Music Technology Conference in 1992, six years ago — four 18-month cycles of Moore's Law. The Law suggests that the computers of 1998 are sixteen-fold (do the math!) more powerful than those of 1992 — that the 1998 Conference employs technology 16x more capable than that of the 1992 Conference. A look back at the computers of early 1992 confirms this. 

If you purchased a computer in January of 1992, it was probably based on a 386 (Intel) or 68030 (Macintosh) chip running at 16 to 20 megahertz. A comparable computer today would be a Pentium or PowerPC running at 200 to 300 megahertz. The 1992 computer likely had 4 megabytes of RAM, a 120 megabyte internal hard drive, and a 1.4 megabyte floppy drive. Today's computer would have 64 megabytes of RAM and a 2 gigabyte (2,000 megabytes) hard drive; the trusty floppy drive would be joined by a 100 megabyte Zip drive. Compare today's 16x CD-ROM drives, spinning at 16 times the speed of the 1x 1992 version. Compare today's 33.6 megabaud modems to the 2400 baud modems of six years ago. Ironically, the 1992 and 1998 computers would occupy the same amount of desk space and would cost approximately the same. Clearly, Moore's Law reigns. 

Such rapid progress is exhilarating for those of us who enjoy life on the cutting edge. For the music teacher whose nearest access to technology is a shared Apple II or whose classroom discs spin at 33 rpm, however, the wheels of progress seem to be spinning, warp-speed, in the wrong direction. 

Not to worry. 

The 1998 MSBOA Music Technology Conference, the 16x Conference, is designed to serve all teachers of music — from those who want to ensure annually that their techno-skills are spinning up to speed, to those who want to take their very first spin. Importantly, the conference will focus on what has changed in music technology since the 1x Conference. 

Music Technology at 16x

Specifically how has Moore's Law affected music technology and music technology education? One dramatic difference can be traced to the way 16x computers handle sound. In 1992 MIDI technology was practically the only means of generating music by computer. In 1998, although MIDI synthesizers still reign supreme, digital audio has emerged as an equally important medium. Whereas the 10 megabytes needed to store every minute of stereo audio crimped the memory, storage and processing power of 1992's computers, today's desktop machines handle such quantities routinely. Consequently, modern sequencing software now provides the capability of integrating synthesizers with vocals, saxophone solos, and other acoustic sounds. 
Digital audio has manifested itself in other ways. The CD-R, a drive that records compact discs, now costs little more than 1992's CD-ROM players, making it economical and straightforward for musicians to create their own audio CDs. Powerful multitrack digital audio recorders, such as Alesis's ADAT recorders and Roland's VïStudio line, are now a staple of the home studio. Samplers allow musicians to map fragments of audio to MIDI instruments. Sampling is a revolution in itself, a technology that has spawned new musical genres and aesthetics. Keyboard magazine deems the sampler "the electric guitar of the '90s." 

The digital hardware at the core of synthesizers has benefited from Moore's Law as well, although the progress since 1992 has been more evolutionary than revolutionary. Today's synthesizers simply sound better, richer, with more patches, more polyphony and more multitimbral capabilities than their predecessors. Some are based on new synthesis technologies (e.g., virtual modeling) that today's powerful processors make affordable. 

Multimedia was a buzz word in 1992, but for computer users in 1992 the real multimedia buzz was the headache propagated by inadequate resources. Today's 16x desktop computers are all multimedia-ready; many are equipped with built-in synthesis and high-?delity speakers. Multimedia peripherals have matured as well. For example, digital cameras have become a popular consumer product; they make it easy to transfer photographs to the computer. The new generation of digital video cameras promises similar ease. Multimedia files that once seemed impossibly bloated are now routinely stored on affordable removable media or burned onto a CD-ROM. Thus can students routinely combine their musical creations with graphics, film, and animation. 

Each incremental improvement in multimedia has afforded developers of computer-assisted instruction an increasing wealth of capabilities. Today's music software for children is so entertaining, so engrossing, and so highly creative, by comparison 1992 software seems little more than cyber-flashcards. 

No one in 1992 foresaw the impending World Wide Web revolution. Currently the Web continues to grow at an astounding rate, increasing its content an estimated 16x every six to seven months. Many observers attribute to the Web phenomenon the urgent investment in the K-12 technology infrastructure. Indeed, in the past six years annual spending on K-12 technology has doubled nationally, from $2.1 billion in 1991-92 to $4.3 billion in 1996-97 (source: Quality Education Data, (c)1997). These funds are wiring school buildings, connecting classrooms, and lowering the student-computer ratio. Given the quality and quantity of networked, Internet-ready, multimedia computers in our schools today, the viewpoint of teachers, administrators and the voting public has changed: no longer an exotic adjunct to the curriculum, technology is now integral. 

Learning the Lessons of 16x

Dizzying as it may be, no educator would want to slow the spinning rate of progress. No educator would want to deny students access to exciting new tools for creativity and instruction. Here, then, are some coping skills for 16x music tech. 

First, be an evangelist. The latest technology will come to your classroom only if parents and administrators are enlightened. Most aren't. Once they see and hear what kids can do with today's music technology, they'll be sold. So, sell them. 

Second, espouse trickle-down. When schools purchase new computers, who gets what? If your school establishes a trickle-down system, those activities most in need of higher-end technology (say, uh, creative multimedia) will regularly get the latest equipment and pass their older machines down the food chain. 

Third, don't feel intimidated by the technology. Instead, empower your students. When something goes wrong, call on a student aide; you probably know at least one child who understands the technology better than you (or I) and is eager to help. Remember, your students need you to teach music, not button-pushing. 

Fourth, the key to keeping up with technology is to learn to learn. The best way to learn is to complete a project. Your time is limited, so use technology to tackle a project you need to get done sometime this year. And your life is stressful, so give yourself ample lead-time. You'll learn by doing, and, teacher that you are, you will want to share what you've learned. 

Finally, keep up-to-date by attending the MSBOA Music Technology Conference every January! We, the conference coordinators, strive to understand the tools, the schools and you. Don't wait six more years — the 256x Conference! We'll see you this January.

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